Patrick Ceresna (Big Picture Trading) and Kevin Muir (MacroTourist) every week discuss the week’s action in the markets — always keeping the other’s feet to the fire for bad calls – yet hopefully having some fun while learning a little something in the process.
Last week, Patrick and Kevin welcomed Alastair Williamson (@stockboardasset) on ‘The Market Huddle’ to talk about debunking the 2H19 growth rebound narrative. Williamson provided a variety of charts, making his case that Wall Street is, in fact, utterly wrong about the second-half rebound.
Williamson said world trade volume is rolling over and global central banks’ toolkits are becoming less effective to stabilize global growth. He suggested that China’s latest record credit injection has failed to bottom Global PMIs (something we spoke about last week).
He also made the case that President Trump is deepening the trade war to achieve much lower equity prices so that the Federal Reserve would be more inclined to cut rates and implement QE-4.
Williamson showed an E-mini S&P 500 Futures analog of 2019 versus 2012. He said the index could fall until mid-summer if the tariff situation worsens, which would then force analysts to lower their price targets and EPS estimates, thus debunking 2H growth rebound narrative.
Without further ado, here is Market Huddle Episode 27: Debunking The 2H19 Growth Rebound Narrative.