After sliding to the lowest level since late July, the Bloomberg Dollar index has found renewed strength this morning, spiking in the past hour.
However, unlike recently when dollar strength was the result of EM weakness, today’s action is largely the result of two G-10 events: on one hand, the British pound is tumbling following Theresa May’s defiant gamble to go all in Brexit negotiations, saying she will not “change tack” despite the EU rebuke of her Chequers plan. Pulling off a Trudeau, when she said that “no deal is better than a bad deal” spooked the FX market, at which point traders started pricing in a greater likelihood of a cliff-edge Brexit, as they had in August.
As Bloomberg’s Stephen Kirland points out, while there’s still time left for talks to move forward, as the deadline approaches the window for reaching some kind of compromise narrows markets will remain volatile: “a close today above the 21-DMA could open the way for further pound losses.”
Meanwhile, Canada’s currency also tumbled when after spiking shortly prior following stronger than expected retail sales, Kevin Hasset speaking on Fox News, warned that Nafta negotiations with Canada are not going well at all:
WHITE HOUSE ADVISER HASSETT SAYS GETTING ‘VERY, VERY CLOSE’ TO HAVING TO MOVE FORWARD ON TRADE DEAL WITH MEXICO AND NOT CANADA: RTRS
This was enough to send the Loonie sharply lower, hitting session lows and adding to more USD strength as tariff and Brexit tensions are once again back on the table.